UK Publishing Industry in 2012: The Big Picture

Tough, but not disastrous. That seems to be the overall view of the prospects for 2012.

A dazzling final week just before Christmas gave general retail sales a much-needed boost. Yet this does not mean a bounce-back for the coming year; more of a claw-back. However, there is modest growth in sight.

Even though the Advertising Association has written down its 2012 forecast for advertising revenues, there is still growth predicted for the year ahead nevertheless, with the prospect of a better 2013.

The latest issue of Wessenden Briefing is full of companies struggling with new business models. This is most pronounced in the newspaper market, where the process of managing the decline in print sales continues to create tensions in the supply chain.

Magazines are seeing a slower (but still rapid) migration into digital which has impacted on how the industry approaches new title launches.

The gloomy headlines from the Plimsoll report (a third of magazine companies at risk of closure with the possible loss of 4,000 jobs) seem a bit hysterical when the total industry is still in profit and revenues are beginning to come back. Yet all this will become clearer when the results of Wessenden’s Publishing Futures 2012 survey are released later this month.

The other links in the supply chain are also going through massive change at the same time. Wholesalers are running into trouble with retailers as they try to diversify their product range into non-press categories.

Retailers themselves are at the real cutting edge of all the consumer trends. The major retailers continue to develop their own multi-channel operations, fighting off Amazon as it extends into more and more categories - Tesco’s physical DVD + digital download offer on films is a fascinating move. Medium-sized retailers, such as Rippleglen and GT News are still struggling with their bricks-and-mortar estates. This leaves the beleaguered independent shop feeling powerless and abused at the  bottom of the food chain. And then the Government isstill thinking what to do, if anything, about the High Street in the wake of the Portas Review which showed that really strategic action needs to take place if town centres are to be prevented from slowly dying.

Balancing the short-term tactics against a long-term strategy is the key challenge for everyone at the moment: especially when trying to manage the very different demands and dynamics of the increasing number of channels to the consumer.

Is the future worse than the past? Or just different?

Whatever the answer, it is certainly more demanding, and faster moving. And, sadly, lower margin. But more of that in Publishing Futures………